With one week left in the season; our playoff picture is clear as; well, actually not very clear. There are five teams vying for one final spot and all of the top 10 teams still have something to play for this week. In fact, while a few teams have secured playoff spots, not one seed is certain, and the only team guaranteed of even finishing in the regular season money is Carjacker, although at which spot is up in the air.
I will try to make heads or tails of the next week below with the sole purpose of making this next week of football exiting for all of us. We will start with what we know.
Teams that have secured a playoff ticket:
1) Currently the number one seed, Carjacker looks to be in good shape. While they have not mathematically secured one of the two byes this week; it is all but guaranteed based on point totals. However, more than that is on the line as they meet the current number two next week in Wildcats. Win and Carjacker takes first for the season. Lose and Wildcats will take the top spot based on total points.
PLAYING FOR REGULAR SEASON FIRST PLACE
2) Wildcats have surged up the standings with a 6th straight win. The timely loss by Too Damn Lousy puts Wildcats in second heading into their matchup with Carjacker. Win and they secure a bye and first place. Lose and things get interesting. They could drop to 4th and out of the money. They would have to wait for both the Too Damn Lousy and Jacko’s Petting Zoo outcome. A loss by Wildcats and a win by TDL vaults the lousy ones to second. Couple that with a win by Jacko’s and it comes down to total points for the final money spot.
PLAYING FOR REGULAR SEASON FIRST PLACE, BYE, FINISH IN MONEY
3) Too Damn Lousy has been just that in the second half of the season. That being said they seem to be a team of destiny having won 3 games by less than two points. This fortuitous output has secured a playoff spot. However, the ill timed loss of a QB and a sub-par performance by AP has left them out of contention for the first place crown. That being said, the playoff BYE and a finish in the money is still in sight. A win guarantees a finish in the money! A win coupled with a Wildcats loss give the horrible ones a BYE in the first round. A loss on the other hand drops TDL to 4th at best and 5th if Jacko can win.
PLAYING FOR BYE, FINISH IN MONEY
4) Jacko’s Petting Zoo has clinched a playoff spot this week with a strong performance and the inexplicable loss by every 5 win team (more on that later). Even though they clinched with only one week to go, Jacko can move into a BYE spot and finish in the money with a little help. First and foremost they must win. A loss and they are fighting for the 4th and 5th seed. If they pull off the win over a hungry HOP team, they can finish in the money with a TDL loss. If TDL wins they can still finish in the money with a Wildcats loss and maintenance of their point lead. Now it gets even more interesting, if they maintain their point lead over Wildcats AND both Wildcats and TDL lose; Jacko vaults into the 2 seed and a first round BYE. Whew, that was a lot to figure out! Jacko needs to win and hope for some help!
PLAYING FOR BYE, FINISH IN THE MONEY
5) My Vick In The Box cannot secure a BYE based on their point total (cannot pass Wildcats or CarJacker). However, they can secure the highest seed (3) in the first round and a finish in the money. They can take a big step toward accomplishing that by knocking off the current number 3 TDL in the final week. After doing that, they need to wait and hope for a Jacko loss, to get that 3 seed. A Jacko win will see them at 4 seed at best and a loss will push them to the 5th seed.
PLAYING FOR 3 SEED (TOP IN FIRST ROUND), FINISH IN THE MONEY
Teams fighting for one spot:
Now for those counting at home, you will see that we have one spot left. But wait; there are five teams still in the hunt! How can that be possible? Well, teams 6 through 9 all had 5 wins heading into week 12 and ALL LOST! So we are now left with 5 of the remaining teams holding onto 5 wins and the final two sitting one game back. Some teams are in better shape due to points but mathematically everyone is alive. Here is how it breaks down:
Tackle Me Elmo is in the best shape due to points. A win and they realistically only have to watch the Pure Misery game for point totals. A lose and they are out.
Pure Misery needs to win. If they do, they are in if TME fails OR if they both win but Misery can make up the points. Pending the final scoring of week 12, this point total is slim at only about 23 so either scenario is realistic. House of Pain would need to put up over 200 points to have a chance of putting a wrench in this scenario and catch up (happened last year). A loss and they too are gone.
House of Pain needs some help due to point totals. They need both Pure Misery and Tackle Me Elmo to lose and they need to maintain their point lead on the winner of Spring Branch and Juggernauts. They could theoretically get even even if TME and/or PM win but they need to pass 200 ponts on the week to make it close. Losing is not an option.
Spring Branch Vatos and Juggernauts will eliminate one or the other in this match up. The winner of this game still needs loses by at least TME and PM and would like to see HOP lose. If HOP does win, the winner has to pass them on points. Now if they tie (happened twice last year), Juggernauts would move on with a loss by the three teams above based on points.
Better Luck next year:
Horn Supremacy and Injured Reserves can start planning for next year. IR really needed to win in week 12 to stay in the hunt and HS was hoping to see a Juggernaut loss in this past week. Both were in the hunt up until Sunday evening. Here is the interesting part. Had the schedule not worked out that SBV and Juggernauts were playing each other (could have played Car and Wild for example); ALL TEAMS COULD HAVE BEEN IN IT GOING TO WEEK 13!
